SMOKE AND MIRRORS:
UNVEILING THE COLD WAR MACHINATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
The concept of the Cold War traditionally evokes images of the ideological and geopolitical struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union. However, the term has also been applied to describe the persistent and multifaceted rivalry in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Saudi Arabia.This rivalry is sometimes referred to as the “Middle East Cold War” which is a concept that has emerged as a framework to describe the enduring rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, alongside other regional actors like the UAE. While drawing parallels to the global Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, it’s essential to recognize the unique dynamics and complexities of the Middle East conflict.
The roots of the Middle East Cold War can be traced back to the post-World War II period, marked by the decline of European colonialism and the rise of Arab nationalism. Arab leaders, notably Egypt’s Gamal Abdel Nasser, championed a vision of pan-Arab unity to counter Western influence. This movement significantly influenced regional politics, fostering a sense of solidarity among Arab nations. Concurrently, the US-Soviet rivalry extended into the region, as both superpowers sought to expand their influence through alliances and support for various regimes. This external interference enhanced pre-existing regional tensions and laid the groundwork for future conflicts.
Throughout the Cold War, both the US and the Soviet Union engaged in proxy conflicts in the Middle East, supporting opposing sides to exert influence. The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) is a prime example, where the US and its allies supported Iraq, while the Soviet Union and other states provided aid to Iran. This brutal conflict had profound consequences for both nations and the region as a whole.
Following the decline of Arab nationalism in the late 20th century, particularly after the death of leaders like Gamal Abdel Nasser, other ideological forces such as Wahhabism and Salafi Jihadism gained prominence. Saudi Arabia, in response to the perceived threat from revolutionary Iran, began promoting its conservative Wahhabi ideology across the Muslim world, funding religious schools and organizations. This ideological shift had far-reaching implications, contributing to the rise of extremist movements.
The decline of Arab nationalism created a vacuum in the ideological landscape of the Middle East, allowing conservative and militant interpretations of Islam to fill the void. Saudi Arabia’s promotion of Wahhabism and Salafi Jihadism can be seen as part of its efforts to counterbalance the influence of Iran, which emerged as a revolutionary force challenging traditional Sunni dominance in the region. However, while initially intended to bolster Saudi Arabia’s regional influence, the spread of Wahhabism and Salafi Jihadism also inadvertently fueled extremism and sectarianism, contributing to the rise of extremist movements like Al-Qaeda and ISIS. This underscores the complex interplay between ideological competition, regional rivalry, and the rise of extremism in the Middle East.
In response to regional security concerns, particularly the Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War, Gulf Arab monarchies formed the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 1981. This alliance aimed to enhance economic and security cooperation among its member states, solidifying a bloc against perceived Iranian threats.
The end of the Cold War did not bring stability to the Middle East; rather, it intensified the Shia-Sunni divide and the geopolitical rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. This period saw the emergence of new conflicts and the deepening of existing ones.
The Syrian conflict, beginning in 2011, became a major proxy war, with Iran supporting the Assad regime and Saudi Arabia backing various rebel groups. The war devastated Syria, leading to a massive humanitarian crisis and regional instability.
Similarly, Yemen’s civil war saw Saudi-led intervention against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. This conflict further exemplified the proxy nature of the Middle East Cold War, with devastating consequences for Yemen’s population. In 2015, Saudi Arabia launched a military intervention in Yemen, aiming to restore the government and counter the influence of the Houthi rebels, who were perceived as Iranian proxies. The intervention has led to widespread destruction and a humanitarian catastrophe.
The conflicts in the Middle East have had severe humanitarian and global repercussions. Millions of people have been displaced, with widespread suffering and destruction across conflict zones. Countries like Syria, Yemen, and Iraq have faced severe humanitarian emergencies, with countless lives lost and communities devastated. Regional instability has repeatedly impacted global oil markets, causing fluctuations in prices and affecting economies worldwide. The Middle East’s strategic importance as a major oil producer makes it a focal point for global energy security.
Several factors continue to perpetuate conflicts in the Middle East, such as the proliferation of arms in the region which, fuelled by international arms sales, has exacerbated conflicts. Major powers continue to supply weapons to various actors, perpetuating the cycle of violence. Deep-seated rivalries and mistrust among regional actors also hinder collective efforts to address security challenges.
Meanwhile, Syria remains in a state of conflict, with President Bashar al-Assad controlling about 70% of the country’s territory. His military, with Russian air support, continues to battle various militant groups in northwest Syria. Moreover, in Yemen, fighting between Houthi rebels and the Saudi coalition has largely subsided, but the Houthis have attacked ships transiting the Red Sea. Dialogue between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, along with Iranian-Saudi normalization, has provided hope for a negotiated solution, but progress has been limited.
Despite the entrenched nature of the Middle East Cold War, there are opportunities for diplomacy and de-escalation. Initiatives aimed at fostering dialogue and building trust among regional actors are essential for mitigating tensions and resolving conflicts. Efforts to address root causes of instability, such as socio-economic development and governance reform, must complement diplomatic initiatives to achieve lasting peace and stability in the region. Multilateral forums like the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Arab League can play a vital role in facilitating dialogue and confidence-building measures among regional stakeholders.
The Middle East Cold War represents a complex web of historical, ideological, and geopolitical factors that continue to shape the region’s contemporary dynamics. While the term “Cold War” evokes parallels to the global conflict, it’s important to recognize the unique characteristics and complexities of the Middle East. By addressing internal grievances, incorporating diverse perspectives, and pursuing diplomatic solutions, there is hope for a more peaceful and stable future in the Middle East.